When you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras
I’ve always enjoyed the saying “when you hear hoofbeats, think horses not zebras.” Its origin is in medical training, I believe, but it’s something I try to keep in mind when trying to solve just about any problem, technical or otherwise. Start with the simplest explanation and work from there. Here’s a story about how I wasted a bunch of time not doing that when my dryer broke.